The OEC PRO Tariff Simulator Report introduces a new model that enables the exploration of intricate scenarios incorporating multiple rules. This feature allows for the simulation of scenarios such as Liberation Day (April 2nd), which involves new tariffs between the United States and multiple countries, as well as the option to customize these scenarios by incorporating personal rules (PRO).
Like our Tariff Simulator v1 and v2 PRO version , it features a simple user interface but in this case focused on a single country against its partners. To run a simulation, users need to:
1. Select a scenario.
2. Select any additional custom rules (which can be added on top of an existing scenario) for PRO users.
3. Select an specific country.
1. Select an scenario. We have several scenarios to explore, and we include new ones as soon as they are announced.
2. Select a country. This shows the overall forecast for that country’s expected future exports & imports.
For example, selecting Canada will display the forecasted imports & exports against the rest of the world at country and product (HS4) level. The Key Markets section explore the bilateral expected change in trade between big players like United States and China.
- Forecast Totals This section shows the total and forecasted change in expected trade by 2027 compared to a recent average (2019–2022), based on the selected scenario.
- Exports Performance This section displays the forecasted change values in exports of the selected country against the rest of the world. The charts are interactive, allowing you to filter by country or product.
- Imports Performance This section displays the forecasted change values in the selected country's imports from every other country. The charts have clickable interactions, enabling you to filter the data by country or product.
- Key Markets This section includes several parts that focus on the bilateral relationship between the selected country and some relevant economies, such as the US and China.
The OEC Tariff Simulator Report uses an expanded and revised version of the bilateral relatedness model developed by Jun et al. (2020). This is an extended gravity model that combines information on the current exports and imports by country and product, the distance between countries, their GDPs and populations, measures of cultural and geographic similarity (e.g. common language, shared borders), and measures of relatedness which capture spillovers among geographic neighbors and related products.
Our current implementation of the OEC tariff simulator report is based on a model that explains more than 83% of the variance in future bilateral trade. This added accuracy (Jun et al. (2020) model explains only about 50% of the variance in future bilateral trade), comes from several improvements, including the use of a Poisson Pseudo Likelihood estimator, spinning functions for the impact of tariffs, and from independently estimating coefficients for HS product sections (e.g. different coefficients for garments, agricultural products, machinery, etc.). We estimated the model using millions of bilateral trade records going back one decade and validated the robustness of our coefficients by checking their stability across models trained using data from different time periods.
You are free to use the OEC tariff simulator estimates, screenshots, and images following three conditions.
- If you plan to publish a post, article, or note on the web, we request you please mention the Observatory of Economic Complexity (or OEC.world) as a source of your estimates and link back to us (either to the homepage or to the tariff simulator page).
- If you plan to publish an academic article, whether it is in a working paper series, a peer-reviewed journal, or a pre-print repository such as the arxiv, we ask that you please cite us as:
The OEC Tariff Simulator. Viktor Stojkoski, Pablo Paladino, Jelmy Hermosilla, and César A. Hidalgo. URL (2025)
- If you plan to publish a social media post (on X, LinkedIn, Instagram, etc), please mention that the source is OEC.world.
Reach out to us. We understand that there is much more to tariff impact than what our current online tool can do (e.g. simulating the simultaneous impact of added tariffs in multiple countries). The OEC team is ready to help you with your analytic needs. You can reach out to us at: [email protected]
By simulating the impact of tariffs, the OEC tariff simulator allows users to explore different policy scenarios in an intuitive manner. We invite you to explore, imagine, and strategize with this new feature at the OEC. Go To PRO Tariff Simulator Report